Skip to content
Heterodata An Arcanum Research project Lewis
Lewis

Current Account, Trade & Government Borrowing

How the U.S. current account decomposes into trade, income and transfers — and the twin-deficits question.

A country's balance of payments records every transaction between its residents and the rest of the world. By construction it balances: a deficit on the current account (trade in goods and services, plus cross-border income and transfers) is mirrored by a surplus on the financial account (net borrowing and asset sales), give or take statistical errors.[1]

The U.S. current account, decomposed

The current-account balance is the sum of three components — the balance on goods & services, the primary-income balance, and the secondary-income balance. The shaded bands below are the three components; the bold line is the current account they sum to. Reading them together shows exactly how the current account and the goods-and-services balance sum out: the trade balance dominates the deficit, while a persistently positive primary-income balance partly offsets it.[2]

The current account and government borrowing — the "twin deficits"

A long-standing question in international economics is whether the current-account deficit co-moves with federal government borrowing — the "twin deficits" hypothesis. The two are plotted together below, both as a share of GDP (negative = deficit).[3]

The series often move together — large federal deficits and large current-account deficits tend to coincide — but the relationship is far from one-to-one: private saving and investment, the dollar's reserve role, and the capital inflows shown on the Flow-of-Funds pages all drive a wedge between them. The current account is the decomposition above; the federal balance is the U.S. Treasury / OMB series (FRED FYFSGDA188S).

Comparison context (U.K. & Germany)

The same accounting holds elsewhere. As supporting context — not the focus of the site — the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany have run strikingly different external balances: a structural U.S. deficit, a durable German surplus, and a volatile British position, all on a single % of GDP basis.

  1. International Monetary Fund (2009). Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6). IMF. link.
  2. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (2025). International Transactions Accounts (BPM6). BEA. link.
  3. U.S. Treasury / Office of Management and Budget (2025). Federal Surplus or Deficit as Percent of GDP (FYFSGDA188S). FRED. link.