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Heterodata An Arcanum Research project Lewis
Lewis

Methodology & Provenance

How every number on this site is sourced, constructed, and bounded. This is the data-provenance record (DPR) for the Lewis platform.

Provenance record

Sources
BEA / ONS / Bundesbank (harmonized); BEA / ONS / Bundesbank / IMF / WB (harmonized); BEA International Investment Position; BEA International Transactions (BPM6); Deutsche Bundesbank Balance of Payments; Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED); Federal Reserve Z.1 Financial Accounts — Rest of the World (FRED BOGZ1LM2630*); Lewis ITV construction (Köhler unequal exchange); Lewis global analysis; ONS Balance of Payments (Pink Book); U.S. Treasury / OMB via FRED (FYFSGDA188S, FYFSD); World Bank / IMF (harmonized); World Bank / OECD / Comtrade (harmonized); World Bank WDI (BM.GSR.GNFS.CD); World Bank WDI (BN.CAB.XOKA.CD); World Bank WDI (BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZS); World Bank WDI (BX.GSR.GNFS.CD); World Bank WDI (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD); World Bank World Development Indicators
Public data from official statistical agencies and international organisations — all free to access (BEA, FRED, U.S. Treasury, ONS, Bundesbank, World Bank, IMF, OECD).
Coverage
22 cached datasets. Temporal span 1901–2025 (varies by panel). Country coverage is three different measures, so each is named wherever it appears rather than averaged into one figure:
  • 214 country trade profiles — the countries with a published profile page, listed at Countries and reported by the site's health endpoint. World Bank aggregates are excluded.
  • 220 economies in the ITV master panel — what the Explorer's country picker offers. It exceeds the profile count because 6 economies (AIA, GIB, MSR, PRK, TWN, VGB) carry panel data but no trade profile.
  • 264 country codes in that panel — the raw code count the data catalog reports, which adds the 44 World Bank regional and income aggregates (WLD, EAP, LMY, …). These are groupings, not countries.
All three are computed from the data at request time, not written into the copy.
Construction
Balance-of-payments data are aligned to the IMF's sixth-edition manual (BPM6). Country panels are expressed as a share of GDP for cross-country comparability; higher-frequency series are aggregated to annual. The current-account / financial-account identity (CA + KA + FA ≈ net errors & omissions ≈ 0) is verified during construction. The ITV master panel applies Köhler's monetary measure of unequal exchange, grouping countries into world-system classes. Each panel is built deterministically from the project's Outputs/ tree by data_pipeline/build_cache.py — see Code.
Units
% of GDP · % of GDP and USD millions · USD millions · USD millions (market value) · counts · counts / USD · current USD · mixed · mixed (per series) · per indicator .
Limits
Deep balance-of-payments panels are limited to the US, UK and Germany by data availability; global coverage (World Bank, ITV) is broader but shallower. The U.S. flow-of-funds section currently rests on the BEA International Investment Position series. Live-API datasets carry a live badge; a fetch that fails validation never overwrites good data. No series is synthesised — where data does not exist, it is not shown.
Reproducibility
Every chart reads from a Parquet cache built deterministically from Outputs/; every dataset is downloadable in CSV, Excel and Parquet from the data catalog, and the full pipeline is on the Code page with a downloadable reproduction bundle.
Return-differential construction
The headline return-reversal chart computes an implied yield = primary-income flow ÷ investment-position stock, in percent per year. Income flows are reconstructed from the U.S. balance-of-payments panel (each reported as a share of GDP, converted to a dollar level as (% of GDP ÷ 100) × GDP, in USD millions); the stocks are the BEA IIP series IIPUSASSA (U.S. assets abroad) and IIPUSLIAA (U.S. liabilities). Flows and stocks are aligned by calendar year over their common span, 1976–2023.
Recently shipped
Two panels the thesis calls for — previously flagged as forthcoming — are now live, built from their published sources and validated:
  • Treasuries vs equities split of foreign-held U.S. portfolio assets — now on Flow of Funds (the us_treasuries_vs_equities and us_foreign_holdings_z1_shares charts), from the Federal Reserve Z.1 Financial Accounts, Rest-of-World sector (BOGZ1… series, 1945–2025).
  • Current account vs federal government borrowing — now on Balance of Payments (the us_ca_vs_gov_borrowing chart), from the federal deficit series (FRED FYFSGDA188S / FYFSD).
A genuinely pending item — the BEA IIP equity-vs-debt portfolio breakdown — is still absent and will be added once acquired and validated; Lewis never fabricates data.

Cache last built: 2026-06-19T21:21:21+00:00

Data sources

Lewis integrates public data from official statistical agencies and international organizations, all free to access:

  • United States — Bureau of Economic Analysis (International Transactions & International Investment Position)[1][2]; Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)[3]; U.S. Treasury.
  • United Kingdom — Office for National Statistics, Balance of Payments (The Pink Book).[4]
  • Germany — Deutsche Bundesbank, Balance of Payments Statistics.[5]
  • Global — World Bank World Development Indicators[6]; IMF; OECD.

All balance-of-payments data are aligned to the IMF's sixth edition manual (BPM6).[7]

Standardization

Country panels are expressed as a share of GDP for cross-country comparability; higher- frequency series are aggregated to annual. The current-account / financial-account identity (CA + KA + FA ≈ net errors & omissions ≈ 0) is verified during construction.

Transfers of value

The ITV master panel applies Köhler's monetary measure of unequal exchange[8], with countries grouped into world-system classes. The framework draws on the Prebisch–Singer terms-of-trade tradition[9][10] and, more distantly, on Lewis's dual-sector model of development.[11]

Reproducibility & freshness

Every chart reads from a Parquet cache built deterministically from the project's Outputs/ tree; every dataset is downloadable in CSV, Excel, and Parquet from the data catalog. Datasets with a public-API source are snapshotted automatically and carry a live badge; a fetch that fails validation never overwrites good data.

Limitations

Country coverage for the deep balance-of-payments panels is limited to the US, UK, and Germany by data availability; global coverage (World Bank, ITV) is broader but shallower. The U.S. flow-of-funds section currently rests on the BEA International Investment Position series.

Philosophy — how Lewis reads international economics

Lewis takes a point of view. The recorded balance of payments is an accounting identity, not an explanation: a current-account deficit is mirrored by a financial-account surplus, but the identity says nothing about who finances whom, what they buy, and who profits. Those are the questions Lewis treats as primary.

Three commitments follow. First, flows and stocks are read together: a deficit is only fully understood through the international investment position it accumulates into, and the income that position throws off. Second, composition matters more than totals: the same dollar of foreign financing has very different consequences depending on whether it buys a Treasury bill or a share of stock — the instrument determines the return foreigners ultimately extract. Third, the data must be honest about its own limits: where a series needed to settle a question is not in hand, Lewis says so and shows what it has, rather than manufacturing a number to complete the picture (see the "Recently shipped" and limits notes above for exactly what is, and is not, yet in the cache).

The result is a forum, not a verdict. The "exorbitant privilege" and its possible erosion are posed as an empirical question the reader can interrogate with the actual data, downloadable in full.

Citations

  1. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (2025). International Transactions Accounts (BPM6). BEA. link.
  2. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (2025). International Investment Position. BEA. link.
  3. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2025). Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). FRED. link.
  4. U.K. Office for National Statistics (2024). Balance of Payments (The Pink Book). ONS. link.
  5. Deutsche Bundesbank (2025). Balance of Payments Statistics. Deutsche Bundesbank. link.
  6. World Bank (2024). World Development Indicators. World Bank. link.
  7. International Monetary Fund (2009). Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6). IMF. link.
  8. Gernot Köhler (2003). The Structure of Global Money and World Tables of Unequal Exchange. Journal of World-Systems Research.
  9. Raúl Prebisch (1950). The Economic Development of Latin America and Its Principal Problems. UN ECLA.
  10. Hans Singer (1950). The Distribution of Gains between Investing and Borrowing Countries. American Economic Review.
  11. W. Arthur Lewis (1954). Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour. The Manchester School.

Further sources

  • Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) (2025). Financial Accounts of the United States (Z.1) — Rest of the World. Federal Reserve / FRED (BOGZ1LM2630*). link.
  • Lewis platform (2025). International Transfer of Value construction (master panel). Lewis.
  • U.S. Treasury / Office of Management and Budget (2025). Federal Surplus or Deficit as Percent of GDP (FYFSGDA188S). FRED. link.